PROVIDE

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

Overshooting temperature threshold targets included in the Paris Agreement is a hot issue. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems where thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The EU-funded PROVIDE project will develop innovative, integrative climate services that incorporate information on impacts of overshoot pathways from the global to the regional and urban level, directly feeding into adaptation action. Bringing together a consortium of leading climate scientists as well as climate services purveyors, urban planners and adaptation experts, the project will identify overshoot adaptation needs and develop a generalisation methodology for adaptation strategies to respond to overshoot risks.

Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would materialise globally but be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems for which thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. A full consideration of impacts and adaptation needs under overshoot scenarios thus requires a risk threshold perspective integrating emission pathways, earth system feedback, regional to local impacts and context-specific vulnerabilities.
To address that challenge, PROVIDE will deliver highly innovative, integrative climate services that incorporate comprehensive information on impacts under overshoot pathways from the global to the regional and urban level, directly feeding into adaptation action. The project specifically aims to: 1) produce global multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate information, which integrates and quantifies impacts across scales by means of novel climate and impact emulators, 2) assess climate system uncertainties and feedbacks and the (ir-)reversibility of climate impacts to provide comprehensive risk assessments of overshooting, 3) co-develop a generalisable overshoot proofing methodology for adaptation strategies to enhance adaptation action in response to overshoot risks, 4) identify and prioritise overshoot adaptation needs in four highly complementary case study regions, 5) integrate all project outcomes into a PROVIDE climate risk dashboard. The dashboard will be designed to complement established climate services platforms and will be widely disseminated to foster uptake and sustainable use across all stakeholder groups addressed. The PROVIDE consortium is constituted of leading climate scientists as well as climate services purveyors, urban planners and adaptation experts embedded in selected case study regions facilitating a continuous co-development process with a wide array of stakeholders.